• French Boule is crap

    May 3rd, 2010. Filed under: Articles

    So the other day I went to Genting Casino for the very first time in years I did actual math. At first I thought I figured out how to beat this so-called game called French Boule. Upon conducting further calculations with my trusty pencil, I have concluded that there is absolutely no way to win money in this game in the long run.

    If you don’t know how French Boule is played, it is basically betting on a tile that represents numbers 1-10. And a ball will be rolled to land on a random number. It’s like a simpler version of Roulette, see full info here.

    Allow me to illustrate with the following table. The row denotes the number tiles you place your chips on. Assuming you place one chip on one tile every round, there is a 10% chance to win 8 times your bet, and a 90% chance to lose one bet. This means in a simulation of 10 rounds of flatbetting, the odds are that you will lose one bet.


    .

    Number of tiles Chance.. To Win Chance.. To Lose Winnings every 10 rounds

    .

    1 10% 8x 90% 1x (1×8)-(9×1)=-1

    .

    2 20% 7x 80% 2x (2×7)-(8×2)=-2

    .

    3 30% 6x 70% 3x (3×6)-(7×3)=-3

    .

    4 40% 5x 60% 4x (4×5)-(6×4)=-4

    .

    5 50% 4x 50% 5x (5×4)-(5×5)=-5

    .

    6 60% 3x 40% 6x (6×3)-(4×6)=-6

    .

    7 70% 2x 30% 7x (7×2)-(3×7)=-7

    .

    8 80% 1x 20% 8x (8×1)-(2×8)=-8

    .

    9 90% 0 10% 9x (9×0)-(1×9)=-9

    .

    10 100% -1x 0% 10x (10x-1)-(0×10)=-10

    .

    .

    For three-numbered tiles

    .

    1 30% 2x 70% 1x (3×2)-(7×1)=-1

    .

    2 60% 1x 40% 2x (6×1)-(4×2)=-2

    .

    3 90% 0 10% 3x (9×0)-(1×3)=-3

    As you can see in this table, the more bets you place on the tiles, the more you will lose in the long run. Even the three-numbered tiles will not help you one bit. I mean, what do you expect? In every game, the house always wins.

    The best strategy that I come up with is this. Place a consistent bet amount on a single tile in every round (this is called flatbetting) and just hope for the best. After you have lost exactly seven times in a row, stand up and walk away. This way, the most you will lose is 7 times your bet; the smallest amount would be RM5x7=RM35. This will maximize the potential of your bad odds.

    Here’s a better strategy: don’t play anything at the casino at all.

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